Skip to content

How it works — Staying accurate

Models go stale. Ours doesn't.

A model built once and left alone becomes fiction. Markets change, channels shift, competitors move. Odins collects data daily, retrains monthly, and validates against real results — so your recommendations stay grounded in reality, not last quarter's assumptions.

Book a demo
baysian-8

Marketing intelligence that drives growth

connections-1
Daily
Data collection
chart-trend-up
Monthly
Model retraining
cpu
Continuous
Validation against actuals
layer-group
Quarterly
Deep model reviews
DATA

Fresh data every day — not a quarterly CSV dump

Odins collects data from all your channels daily. Digital channels sync automatically via API. Offline channels flow through simple templates. The model always has access to the latest information — not a stale export from three months ago. When something changes in your marketing (new campaign, paused channel, competitor entry), the data captures it.

baysian-9
RETRAINING

Every month, the model learns from what just happened

Each month, we retrain the model with the latest data. This isn't just appending rows — the model re-estimates every channel's response function, updates saturation curves, and adjusts for any performance shifts.

If a channel that was performing well starts hitting diminishing returns, the model catches it. If a new channel is gaining traction, the model reflects it. Recommendations stay current.

baysian-10
markers-v4-2

We check: did last month's predictions hold up?

The most honest question you can ask a model: 'what did you predict, and what actually happened?' We run this check every cycle. If the model predicted a 5% lift from increased social spend and you got 4.8%, confidence increases. If it predicted 5% and you got 1%, we investigate. Trust gets built not by dashboards, but by being right — or admitting when you're not.

  • Predictions compared to actual results monthly
  • Discrepancies trigger investigation
  • Model accuracy tracked over time
  • Transparent reporting on how well the model performs
markers-v4

We catch when reality stops matching the model

Markets change. What worked last quarter might not work now. A competitor launches. A platform changes its algorithm. Consumer behavior shifts.

Odins monitors for 'drift' — when model assumptions start diverging from reality. When drift is detected, we investigate: data issue, market change, or model limitation? Then we adjust.

  • Automated monitoring for model drift
  • Early warning when performance shifts
  • Distinguishes data issues from genuine market changes
  • Triggers model adjustments when needed
baysian-11

For uncertain channels, we design experiments

Some channels have wide confidence ranges — the model isn't sure yet how well they work. Instead of guessing, we design structured tests: increase spend on the uncertain channel for 4–6 weeks, measure what happens, and feed the results back.

This collapses uncertainty and gives the model better data to work with. Uncertainty isn't a reason to do nothing — it's a reason to run a structured test.

  • Channels with high uncertainty flagged automatically
  • Structured test plans with clear success criteria
  • 4–6 week experiments, cost-bounded
  • Test results feed directly into the model
bayesian-header

Every quarter, we step back and look at the big picture

Beyond monthly retraining, we do a deeper review every quarter. Are the starting assumptions still reasonable? Has the competitive landscape changed? Are there new channels to add or old ones to retire?

This is where we sit down with your team and make sure the model reflects your current business reality.

  • Starting assumptions reviewed and updated
  • New channels added, retired ones removed
  • Market-level changes incorporated
  • Shared with your team for alignment
markers-v4-2

How models fail — and how we prevent it

rocket-launch-1

"The model was built once and never updated."

The #1 failure mode. A model from January is fiction by June. Monthly retraining prevents this.

settings

"The data is stale or incomplete."

If data stops flowing, the model stops being useful. Daily automated collection keeps things fresh. Monitoring catches gaps before they compound.

sparkle

"Market conditions changed but nobody noticed."

A competitor launched. An algorithm changed. Behavior shifted. Drift detection catches these and triggers updates.

IN PRACTICE

What a monthly model review looks like

Once a month, we share updated results: what the model found, what changed, what we recommend. It's a 30–45 minute session — not a three-day workshop.

We cover: how predictions compared to actuals, which channels gained or lost effectiveness, what the model recommends for next month, and whether any channels are worth testing. You leave with concrete actions, not a 50-page report.

people-in-an-office

Want a model that stays accurate?

Book a walkthrough. We'll show you the validation cycle, the monitoring, and what a monthly review looks like.

Discuss your needs and challenges

Explore the most relevant features of Odins

See how to unlock more value from your data

Frequently Asked Questions

Monthly. Each retraining incorporates the latest data and re-estimates all channel response functions.

We investigate. Wrong predictions are valuable — they point to market changes, data issues, or model limitations that need addressing.

Yes. We share prediction vs. actual comparisons every month. Full transparency.

Major events: a significant market shift, new product launch, competitor entry, or large campaign change.

The first model is useful immediately — built on 150+ weeks of history. Accuracy improves over the first 3–6 months as monthly updates refine it.

We add it to the data pipeline and the model. New channels start with wider uncertainty that narrows as data accumulates.

Strongly recommended. 30–45 minutes per month. The model works best when informed by your business knowledge.

The quarterly deep review handles this. We also trigger ad-hoc reviews when significant shifts are detected.