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Scenario planning

Find the right budget, then make it work harder

Most teams jump straight to channel allocation. But the bigger question is whether the total budget is right. Scenario planning answers the budget-level question first, then optimizes the allocation within it.

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The question nobody asks

Every budget cycle starts the same way. Someone proposes a number, usually last year’s budget plus a percentage, and the team argues about how to divide it. The total is treated as a given. But it shouldn’t be.

The real question isn’t "how do we split €15M across 12 channels?" It’s "should we be spending €15M at all?"

Odins solves for both the right level and the right allocation. You can finally stop guessing at the top line, and stop arguing about the split.

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Two ways to plan, and a way to compare them

Whether you’re setting the budget or working within one, Odins gives you a concrete, model-backed plan. Run multiple scenarios and compare them side by side.
  • Find the right level
  • Optimize the allocation
  • Compare scenarios

How much should we spend?

Set a minimum acceptable return (marginal ROAS) or maximum acceptable cost (marginal CAC). The system finds the total budget where every euro still earns above your threshold.

It turns “we think we should spend more” into: “Spending an additional €2M delivers an incremental €3.5M in revenue at a marginal ROAS of 1.75x . Here’s the channel-by-channel breakdown.”

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We have a fixed budget. Where should it go?

The budget is decided. Now make it work as hard as possible. Set the total spend and the optimizer distributes it across channels and time periods to maximize return.

It respects your constraints, like minimum spend on brand or maximum on a test channel, and accounts for diminishing returns on each channel.

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Stress-test your strategy before you commit

Run multiple scenarios and compare them directly:

  • Different total budgets — €13M vs. 150M vs. 175M
  • Different performance thresholds — 3x marginal ROAS vs. 2x
  • Different channel constraints — commit to TV vs. go fully digital
  • Different time periods — Q1 heavy-up vs. even spread

Present 3–4 concrete options, not a single plan to approve or reject, but a menu of trade-offs to choose from.

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Results designed for every audience

Every scenario shows what the CFO, CMO, and media team each need to see. Same model, same numbers, but different views for different decisions.

For the CFO / CEO: Is this budget right?

  • Total budget vs. forecasted outcome (revenue / sales / units).

  • Base contribution: What happens without any marketing spend.

  • Marketing contribution: The incremental impact of the budget.

  • Marginal ROAS / marginal CAC: The return on the last euro spent is the single most important metric for budget-level decisions.

For the CMO: Where is the money going and why?

  • Channel allocation breakdown: How the budget is distributed, with the reasoning visible in the numbers.

  • Overall ROAS / CAC alongside marginal ROAS / CAC: The difference between these tells you whether you're coasting on efficient channels or pushing into diminishing returns.

  • Constraint indicators: Clear markers showing where your constraints shaped the allocation vs. where the optimizer chose freely.

Real-world constraints, built in

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Fixed

Spend exactly X amount on TV. For contractual obligations or commitments that aren’t up for discussion.

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Range

Spend between X and Y on paid search. Test within bounds or reflect realistic operational limits.

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Exclude

Remove a channel entirely from the optimization for this period.

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Cost of constraint

Every constraint has a price. The optimizer shows you the cost vs. the unconstrained optimum.

The optimizer finds the best allocation for everything that isn't already decided, and shows you what the unconstrained optimum would have been.

What this means for your team

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For the CMO

Bring a scenario comparison to the board: what €13M vs. 150M vs. 170M delivers, with marginal returns and confidence ranges. Three options, clear trade-offs, one recommendation.

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For the CFO

Every scenario shows total spend, expected return, marginal efficiency, and the cost of constraints, before a single cent is committed.

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For the media team

An exportable, period-level spend plan, channel by channel, month by month. Specific enough to brief agencies directly.

FROM PLAN TO ACTION

From plan to action

Each scenario gives you a concrete budget plan: how much per channel, per period, with predicted outcomes and confidence ranges.

Once the budget is live, Odins keeps working. The model updates as new data comes in, and the Recommendations engine turns your static plan into dynamic, monthly guidance.

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Want to see what this looks like with your data?

Book a walkthrough. We'll show you how scenario planning works using examples relevant to your industry and budget size.

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Frequently Asked Questions

A spreadsheet can show you what happens if you move 10% from one channel to another. It can’t solve for the optimal allocation across all channels simultaneously, account for diminishing returns and saturation on each one, or tell you whether the total budget itself is right. Odins does all of this — and updates as new data comes in.

Seconds. Once your model is calibrated, running a new scenario — with different budget levels, constraints, or thresholds — is near-instant. You can run dozens in a single planning session.

Yes. You can set fixed amounts, ranges, or exclusions at the channel level. The optimizer works around your constraints and shows you the cost of each one relative to the unconstrained optimum.

That’s one of the two core modes. Set your total budget and let the optimizer find the best allocation across channels and time periods. You’ll see exactly where each euro goes and why.

Every scenario includes confidence ranges — not just a single number. You’ll see the central estimate, the likely range, and the downside case. The model is transparent about what it knows and what it doesn’t.

Scenario planning is typically used by CMOs and marketing directors during budget cycles, with results shared with the CFO for approval. The media team uses the approved plan for execution.

Scenario planning uses the same marketing mix model that powers all of Odins. Once a plan is approved, the Recommendations engine takes over — turning your static budget into a dynamic, monthly action plan.

Yes. You can plan for a quarter, a half-year, or a full year. You can also model different time-period weightings — for example, heavier spend in Q1 vs. an even spread across the year.